Colts: by Brian Abate
The Indianapolis Colts had a strange start to their 2019 season when franchise quarterback Andrew Luck shockingly decided to retire at age 29 shortly before the season began. Despite losing Luck, the Colts looked like they could be a playoff team. Jacoby Brissett took over for Luck and had a solid season. The Colts offense was able to ride their dominant offensive line and Marlon Mack to early season success thanks to a strong running game. They started the season 5-2, including a road victory over the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately, the Colts struggled to close out games without much of a passing game and age finally caught up to Adam Vinatieri, which burned the Colts badly. He missed six extra points and eight field goals last season. Indianapolis ended up going 7-9 and six of their first seven losses were one possession games. His struggles alone may have prevented the Colts from making the playoffs. This season they have Chase McLaughlin signed as their kicker and expect much better results.
This offseason the Colts made a few big moves. They signed veteran quarterback Philip Rivers to a one-year deal. I think he will be a perfect fit for Indy. He can still lead a team and can make every pass necessary to be a successful quarterback. He has been a Pro Bowler in three of his last four seasons but struggled last season. Still, his struggles stemmed from an atrocious offensive line on the Chargers and to make matters worse his offensive line also suffered multiple injuries. I can say with confidence that Rivers is the least mobile quarterback in the NFL but he will have one of, if not the best offensive line in the league with the Colts. That offensive line should protect him and give him time in the pocket. They also drafted Michael Pittman Jr., a talented wide receiver out of USC to give Rivers a weapon to play alongside T.Y. Hilton. They also drafted Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor in the second round. He will likely split playing time with Mack. Tight end Jack Doyle is coming off of a Pro Bowl season so Rivers will have plenty of weapons to work with in addition to an elite offensive line.
The Colts also made a big move on defense in the offseason. They traded their first round pick to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for DeForest Buckner. He is versatile and can stop the run or get after opposing quarterbacks. He can also play inside or outside on the defensive line. He will play alongside Justin Houston. The verteran defensive end had 11 sacks for the Colts last season. They also added Pro Bowl cornerback Xavier Rhodes in the offseason. He is coming off of a strong season with the Vikings but they didn’t want to pay him and the Colts were able to sign him. They can both make big plays to force turnovers and will complement star linebacker Darius Leonard nicely. The Colts were a decent team defensively last season but I think adding playmakers like Buckner and Rhodes will make a big difference this season.
The Colts over/under is set at 8.5 this season. Last season they only won seven games but with better kicking could have easily won nine. I think the Colts are set up for success this season. They have an excellent offensive line, a competent veteran quarterback who should have more time in the pocket than he’s had in years with the Chargers. They also have shown they will rely on their running game, which allows them to control the clock and rest their defense. I think the Colts have improved in all three phases of the game this offseason and should have a good shot at winning their division. The Jaguars appear to be ready to tank and the Texans are in disarray after the perplexing DeAndre Hopkins trade. The Titans and Colts play each other twice in the second half of the season and those two games could decide who wins the division. Even if the Colts don’t win the division, I think they can certainly make the playoffs as a wild card team. I think they will finish with nine or ten wins.
Prediction: Over
Texans: by Chris DiGeronimo
The Texans shocked the world this offseason by trading franchise receiver DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals. After an apparent fallout both Hopkins and Coach/GM Bill O’Brien agreed their relationship was beyond repair and it was time for both parties to move on. The Texans traded Hopkins and a fourth-round pick to the Cardinals for RB David Johnson, a 2020 second-round pick, and a 2021 fourth-round pick. This move has left a lot of fans puzzled including quarterback Deshaun Watson who seemed to also be blindsided by the move, no pun intended. Watson and Hopkins have been a lethal combo over the last three years, connecting on over 30 touchdowns and 315 receptions. Hopkins will now join a deep receiving core in Arizona, and Watson will be looking for a new number one receiver in training camp.
Bill O’Brien did make some moves to help try and replace Hopkins’ production. He signed free agent Randall Cobb to a three-year, $27 million deal that includes $18 million guaranteed. He also got a deal done with the Los Angeles Rams to acquire WR Brandin Cooks and a future fourth-round pick in exchange for a 2020 second-round pick. You may agree with the theory that two is better than one, but in this case the one has very big shoes to fill. Cooks had a disappointing year for the Rams in 2019, accumulating a measly 583 yards, 42 receptions, and two touchdowns. Cobb, on the other hand, had a slightly better season with the Cowboys, accumulating 828 yards, 55 receptions, and three touchdowns. As you can see, if you combine Cobb and Cooks they do equal Hopkins 2019 production but I'm sure a lot of Houston die hards would rather have kept the latter. O’Brien did not stop there, he re-signed offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil to a record three-year $66 million contract extension and also signed cornerbacks Phillip Gaines, Vernon Hargreaves, Bradley Roby, Jaylen Watkins and safety Eric Murray. He bolstered the offensive line even more by signing tackle Brent Qvale while re-signing kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn, tight end Darren Fells, and backup quarterback AJ McCarron. The Texans sent their 2020 first round pick to Miami in the Tunsil trade at the deadline, but they did have their second and third round picks. They used those picks to draft defensive lineman Ross Blacklock from TCU and edge rusher Jonathan Greenard from Florida.
The Texans over/under is set at 7.5 this season. Houston’s offense will definitely feel the aftershock of trading Hopkins during 2020. Watson no longer has the security blanket that he once had, so he is going to have to maximize the talent that he has around him. If Will Fuller is able to stay healthy for more than three games, that gives them another deep option to go along with Cooks. The question is can Cobb become the new security blanket that helps to move the chains? At his age that is a big question mark but it could work with the right scheme. Houston’s run game should be decent with the acquisition of Johnson, but he hasn’t been as dominant over the last two seasons, so the Texans will hope he can have a resurgence behind their mediocre offensive line. Duke Johnson will also be a factor in the run game as he can also double as a set of hands out of the backfield which is always beneficial. When you factor in injuries and under performance in 2020 look for Watson to be on the run more often than usual and expect a decline in stats as well. The Texans defense should be able to keep them in some games but they are in the middle of the pack when it comes to rankings. Overall, I believe the Texans will take a step back this season, I do not expect them to get more than six wins.
Prediction: Under
Jaguars: by Gianluca Colageo Milea
The Jaguars are coming off of two rather disappointing seasons. The team tried to turn the tides by bringing in Nick Foles; however, the former Super Bowl MVP suffered a broken collarbone in week one against the Chiefs. Ultimately, Foles finished his first and last season in Jacksonville with an 0-4 record. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew stepped in for the injured starter for most of the season. Minshew finished his rookie campaign with 3,271 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns. His play obviously had a lasting impact on the Jags’ front office as the team traded Foles to Chicago, giving Minshew the keys to the franchise. Although the team brought in Mike Glennon during the offseason, it would appear to be Minshew’s job to lose at this point.
The team will need a lot more than a decent sophomore season from Gardner Minshew in order to succeed in 2020. The Jaguars had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2018, this is far from the case today. CB A.J. Bouye, CB Jalen Ramsey, DE Calais Campbell, and DT Marcell Dareus have all departed from Jacksonville, leaving one of the most touted defenses rather barren. Star young defensive end Yannick Ngakoue has also voiced his desires to take his talents elsewhere, it remains to be seen whether this request will be respected as the team placed the franchise tag on him. The Jags were attempting to rebuild their highly-touted defense when they drafted CB C.J. Henderson (9th overall) and LB K’Lavon Chaisson (20th overall). While both of these rookies will definitely have an immediate impact, the Jaguars will need much more to make it back to the AFC Championship game.
The 2020 schedule isn’t exceptionally difficult, as Jacksonville has the 22nd hardest path to the playoffs based on their opponent’s 2019 combined winning percentages. The AFC South won’t be the most difficult opposition, especially with Bill O’Brien’s Chip Kelly-esque destruction of the Houston Texans. However, the team will have to go up against the AFC and NFC North, which both present some more than respectable competition.
The Jaguars over/under is set at 4.5 this season. The number seems exceptionally low for a team just three years removed from an AFC Championship berth. I would not expect much from Jacksonville this season, but it will be interesting to see if they are able to overcome such a low Vegas prediction. With the uncertainty of what to expect from Minshew’s sophomore season, combined with the plethora of essential departures on the defensive side of the ball, I am going to lean towards the under. If the team is able to find success and win more than 4 games it will fall heavily on the shoulders of Leonard Fournette, Gardner Minshew, and Doug Marrone’s ability to patch together a lot of new defensive faces.
Prediction: Under
Titans: by Chris DiGeronimo
The Titans were the surprise team of 2019, finishing 9-7, getting a Wild Card spot and making it all the way to the AFC Championship Game. The Titans jumped on the back of 2019 rushing champion Derrick Henry and a resurgent Ryan Tannehill late in the season, and they didn’t look back as they beat the heavily favored Patriots and Ravens before running out of steam against the Chiefs. Tennessee will look to continue that success in 2020 as they placed the franchise tag on Henry, and rewarded Tannehill with a four-year $118 million contract with $62 million guaranteed. The Titans had some significant departures on both sides of the ball this offseason as they lost OT Jack Conklin, DT Jurrell Casey, CB Logan Ryan and LB Wesley Woodward. They have done a solid job finding replacements in free agency as they signed OLB Vic Beasley and CB Johnathan Joseph to one-year deals. They also signed OL Ty Sambrailo to a one-year deal, and re-signed OT Dennis Kelly and LB Kamalei Correa to three and one-year deals respectively. Tennessee used the draft to help replace the loss of Conklin as they drafted Georgia OT Isaiah Wilson with the 29th pick in the draft. Wilson will likely compete with Kelley for the starting job.
The Titans over/under is set at 8.5 this season. It is going to be interesting to see if this group of cohesive talent can keep it up for a whole season. We know Henry is going to be the featured back week in and week out, and will likely take a step back in 2020. The other question mark is the health of Tannehill. Fans have seen the flashes of greatness in Miami and last year with the Titans but up until now he hasn’t been able to put it all together. Another factor is going to be second year receiver AJ Brown. Brown emerged as the number one target in this offense, and has the talent to keep that up. He finished 2019 with 52 receptions, 1,051 yards, and eight touchdowns, giving fans a glimpse of what’s to come in the future. Defenses are going to have to account for the dangerous run game, which means Brown is going to get a lot of favorable matchups and become an even better weapon. With that being said, with the inevitable decline of Henry, the question mark that is Tannehill, and the significant departures on defense I’d say it will be hard for Tennessee to be better than they were last year, but they will still be in the hunt for the playoffs especially with the extra wild card going into effect in 2020.
Prediction: Under
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