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Gianluca Colageo Milea

NFL Division Win Total Predictions: AFC West


Raiders: by Gianluca Colageo Milea


The Las Vegas Raiders will look to break in Allegiant Stadium by doing something they have done once in the last 17 years, make the playoffs. After signing Jon Gruden to a 10 year, $10 million deal two years ago, the Raiders have compiled an 11-21 record. In a 2018 interview with USA Today, Gruden vowed to turn things around in the Bay Area, “If I can’t get it done, I’m not going to take their money.” Although the Raiders finished last season 7-9, the team surprised many with their play, as they managed to not be eliminated from playoff contention until the final week of the season. The Raiders were the 14th team to be featured on the HBO hit Hard Knocks. Since the show began, 5 of the 14 teams have now qualified for the playoffs the same season that they were featured on the show. While the Raiders were unable to become the 6th team to accomplish this feat, they did make a strong (short-lived) case to make a run for the division title after beginning the season

6-4.


After the Antonio Brown saga that blurred much of the offseason, the Raiders were able to generate a reasonable amount of offense, as they finished the year 11th in the league in total yards. However, in the words of the great John Madden “You can't win a game if you don't score any points.” This quote epitomizes much of 2019 for the Raiders. The team scored just 313 points on offense, which was good for bottom 10 in the NFL. Not only did they struggle punching the ball into the end zone, the defense allowed 419 points to opponents, worse than 23 other teams. Gruden will have to do a better job of incorporating Spider 2 Y Banana into the playbook if the team is going to have more success.


The Raiders will need to make a lot of changes and hope that their abundance of young talent continues to blossom and mature into pillars of a winning culture. Las Vegas will rely heavily on the likes of Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Cory Littleton, and Darren Waller. The team will also need safety and 2019 first round pick Jonathan Abrams to return after missing all but one game last season to a torn rotator cuff. Josh Jacobs was able to put together a nice rookie year, finishing with 1,150 yards; he will look to build off of this performance in 2020 as he definitely has the talent to become one of the top backs in the league for many years to come. The team also drafted Henry Ruggs III as the first WR selected in this past draft. Ruggs had an incredible career at Alabama and was obviously very highly touted, after coming off the board so quickly in a draft stacked with receivers. Defenders should expect to deal with persistent “Ruggs-burns” throughout his rookie campaign.


This post would not be complete without highlighting one player deserving of more credit than he is given. My Gruden Grinder this year is Rodney Hudson. Hudson has been a stud for the Raiders and is definitely compensated for his incredible play. The Pro Bowl center signed a 3 year, $33.75 million contract extension in 2019, which made him the highest paid player at his position. Hudson has made the Pro Bowl three times now over the course of his nine year NFL career. Hudson will need to stay healthy and continue to provide running lanes for Josh Jacobs and clean pockets for Derek Carr if the Raiders are to have any chance of finding the endzone more frequently in 2020.


The Raiders over/under is set at 6.5 this season. I am excited to see what Coach Gruden will be able to do with many new pieces, as well as many of his now experienced young players. The team has definitely taken some key steps and added talent with free agency signings like Nelson Agholor, Prince Amukamara, Corey Littleton, and Carl Nassib. All of which will definitely have a large impact on the team’s ability to build off of their disappointing end to 2019. With all this being said, the team has a difficult road ahead. The Raiders open up the season against 4 2019 playoff teams in their first 5 games. Las Vegas will also have to go up against the NFC South, probably one of the most talented divisions in football. Overall, I believe the team is more talented than they were last year; however, I do not think they will be able to overcome some difficult matchups in 2020.


Prediction: Under



Chargers: by Brian Abate


The Chargers are coming off of a very disappointing season and they made some big changes this offseason. Los Angeles parted ways with their veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, the only quarterback to make a start for the team in the last 14 seasons. They drafted Justin Herbert as River’s successor and also have veteran Tyrod Taylor on their roster.


Last season the Chargers offensive line was hampered by injuries and was one of the worst in the league. That combined with Rivers’ lack of mobility was a recipe for disaster which resulted in 20 interceptions and eight fumbles by Rivers. Taylor and Herbert are both significantly more mobile. The Chargers offensive line should get a boost from Bryan Bulaga, who signed with them in the offseason after 10 years in Green Bay. They also signed guard Trai Turner, who has made the Pro Bowl in five consecutive seasons with the Panthers. Additionally, Los Angeles will get center Mike Pouncey back healthy after he played in just five games last season. The Chargers retained Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Hunter Henry, who have all dealt with injuries throughout their careers. However, if they can stay healthy they are a very talented group of playmakers in the passing game. The Chargers lost running back Melvin Gordon so they will have to rely on Austin Ekeler, who was impressive last season. They also drafted Joshua Kelley out of UCLA, who will likely be Ekeler’s backup.


In addition to injuries on offense, the Chargers lost many of their best defensive players due to injuries, including star safety Derwin James. The Chargers also have a talented pass rushing duo with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. They added vertan defensive lineman Linval Joseph, who has been effective over his last few seasons with the Vikings. They also added veteran cornerback Chris Harris. I like both signings and think both players still have something left in the tank. Los Angeles also traded up in the first round of the NFL Draft to select Kenneth Murray, a linebacker out of Oklahoma, who was a tackling machine in college. The Chargers have the potential to be a very good defensive team if they can stay healthy and get decent play from their veterans.


The Chargers over/under is set at 7.5 this season. I think they have a lot of talented playmakers on both sides of the ball but so many of those players have been plagued by injuries throughout their career so it’s unlikely that they’ll stay healthy this season. Their defense should keep them competitive but having a new starting quarterback and key new members of the offensive line makes their offense a question mark. I expect the Chargers to be competitive early in the season but I think they’re looking to build for the future and will turn the reins over to Herbert fairly early on. I think they’ll focus on trying to develop him rather than pushing for the playoffs. I predict turnovers will haunt them for a second season in a row. On the bright side, the powder blue uniforms are back!


Prediction: Under



Chiefs: by Brian Abate


The Chiefs won the Super Bowl for the first time in 50 years last season thanks to a dominant offense, opportunistic defense and excellent coaching from Any Reid. Patrick Mahomes returned from a knee injury and played at an extremely high level. Kansas City was able to hold on to most of their key players from last season and made some under the radar moves during the offseason. They should be one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl again.


The Chiefs offense has been a juggernaut over the past two seasons and as long as they stay healthy that will not change. Mahomes will have plenty of targets with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and Damien Williams all returning to the Chiefs this season. As if that wasn’t enough already, Kansas City drafted talented running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of LSU in the first round of the NFL Draft. Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are both trusted tackles to protect Mahomes and if Kansas City is able to stay healthy, they will be nearly impossible to stop. Mahomes’ health will be crucial after his knee injury last season. In the weeks after his return it definitely appeared to hinder his mobility but he looked healthier and more comfortable as the season went on. I expect the Chiefs to be cautious with him, especially during the regular season, as they should be. While he may not have many running plays, he can still use his athleticism to create plays just like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson do.


While Kansas City did not have a dominant defense last season they were fairly good and stepped up when they had to. They will have their dynamic pass-rushing duo of Frank Clark and Chris Jones back for another season. They also still have veteran leaders, including Tyrann Mathieu and Anthony Hitchens. They added linebacker Willie Gay Jr. out of Mississippi State with their second round pick. Kendall Fuller left in free agency but the Chiefs kept almost all of their defense together from last season, which bodes well for them. Forming chemistry shouldn’t be an issue, despite the uncertainty caused by coronavirus.


The Chiefs over/under is set at 11.5 this season. They won the Super Bowl last year, still have an excellent head coach in Andy Reid and brought back almost all of their key players from last season’s team. I also love what Clyde Edwards-Helaire brought to LSU, and he has the potential to make their offense even better. No one else in the division jumps out to me as a threat to the Chiefs in 2020. It’s never easy for a team to win 12 games but I think the Chiefs explosive offense and team chemistry will make it happen. They have a good chance to win the Super Bowl again as they look to form a dynasty.


Prediction: Over



Broncos: by Chris DiGeronimo


The Denver Broncos have not had a winning season in four years, but 2019 gave fans a glimmer of hope for the future. The Broncos finished 7-9, which was tied for second place in the division and they won four of their last seven games after starting 0-4. Rookie quarterback Drew Lock played well in relief of an injured Joe Flacco. Lock took the opportunity and ran with it as he finished his rookie year throwing for 1,020 yards and seven touchdowns in five games. Lock will look to capitalize on his success in 2020 as fans will get to see a full season of work in his second year. Lock is not the only young weapon this offense has to offer, the offense also boasts third year wideout Cortland Sutton, second year tight end Noah Fant, and third year hometown hero Phillip Lindsay. Each piece will look to expand their role and become a dangerous triple threat in 2020. It also doesn’t hurt that GM John Elway was able to sign former LA Charger Melvin Gordon to compete with Lindsay and ultimately become a two headed monster for opposing defenses. He also added another big piece in the draft, taking Alabama wideout Jerry Jeudy with the 15th pick. Jeudy is an excellent route runner that will fit perfectly in this dynamic offense.


With the offense shaping up, Elway decided to get defensive with his offseason acquisitions. The Broncos acquired CB AJ Bouye from the Jaguars in exchange for a 2020 fourth round pick. They also acquired DE Jurrell Casey from the Titans in exchange for a seventh-round pick. Bouye and Casey should play big roles in this defense and play well alongside Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. In free agency they were able to sign offensive guard Graham Glasgow to a four-year, $44 million deal, punter Sam Martin to a three-year deal, and tight end Nick Vannett to a two-year deal. They also re-signed DT Shelby Harris to a one-year, $3.25 million deal.


The Broncos over/under is set at 7.5 this season. After winning seven games in 2019 with a less talented and experienced team, I think at least eight wins is definitely feasible. Lock is obviously going to have to adjust to playing a full season but I think he is talented enough to get the job done, especially with the talent he has around him. Jeudy will be a big help in this offense given the fact that opposing defenses also have to deal with Sutton as he transforms into a formidable number one receiver. I believe the run game will also benefit because both Gordon and Lindsay have something to prove. Lindsay will not give up his starting job easily, and Gordon wants to prove that the Chargers made a mistake by not paying him. It is going to be interesting to see how that plays out, but I think it will benefit the team in the long run. The Denver defense is not as ferocious as it was in 2015 but with the pieces that they added in Bouye and Casey it is definitely improved and has the talent to keep the offense in the game. Overall, I believe the Broncos had a good offseason and filled the voids they needed to be very competitive in 2020.


Prediction: Over


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