By Brian Abate
The New York Yankees starting rotation went through some brutal lows and one incredible high this offseason. The high, of course, was signing Gerrit Cole, the best pitcher available in free agency, to a nine-year $324 million dollar deal. Still, the Yankees were dealt a few significant blows to their rotation. The biggest being Luis Severino, who has been the team’s ace over the past couple seasons, will miss all of 2020 after getting Tommy John surgery. So much for the dynamic duo of Severino and Cole (for now). The Yankees also learned that Domingo German will be suspended for the first 63 games of the season, which is now nearly the entire season, under MLB’s domestic violence protocol. The Yankees also looked like they would be without James Paxton for an extended period of time but he has now recovered and will be ready to go when play resumes. My prediction for New York’s starting five heading into the season are Cole, Paxton, Tanaka, J.A. Happ, and Jordan Montgomery.
Gerrit Cole: Cole has an electric fastball and slider. He is in his prime and was a dominant force last season with the Houston Astros. He went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.895 WHIP. He led the league with 326 strikeouts. He also pitched well in the postseason, finishing with a 4-1 record. He wasn’t phased by the allegedly juiced baseballs, which led to a dramatic increase in home runs. Cole is an elite pitcher in his prime so as long as he stays healthy, the only concern the Yankees should have is whether or not he can handle the bright lights of the Bronx and the pressure that comes with putting on the pinstripes. Cole grew up a Yankees fan but played in very different environments in both Pittsburgh and Houston. He also wasn’t on such a massive contract with them. Still, Cole has quite a bit of postseason experience and has pitched very well in October. He is 6-4 with a 2.60 ERA and 78 strikeouts in 65.2 innings in the postseason in his career. WHIP is 0.868. His ability to handle that pressure, as well as the pressure of being the first pick in the 2011 MLB draft will bode well for him in the Bronx. His numbers may not be as jaw-dropping as last season but I expect an excellent first season with the Yankees for Gerrit Cole.
James Paxton: Paxton got off to a slow start in his first season with the Yankees last season, but turned it around down the stretch despite dealing with back pain which led to surgery in the offseason. He finished 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and went 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA in the postseason. He is also entering a contract year, which will give him extra motivation to pitch well this season. Paxton’s biggest concerns have been injuries and walks. Hopefully, he is fully recovered, with his now-healed back injury, and can remain healthy for the rest of the season. The walks are a bit more of concern and have been frustrating as they’ve negatively affected his pitch count. Paxton also struggled repeatedly in the first inning of games before settling down later in games last season. He has had time to address those issues in the offseason and I’m expecting a big year from Paxton. He has an excellent fastball which sets up his offspeed pitches well. I also think Paxton will be helped, by having the spotlight on Cole instead of himself.
Masahiro Tanaka: Tanaka never seems fazed by the adversity he has faced throughout his career in the Bronx. He doesn’t mind the spotlight, he has pitched well despite a partially torn elbow, and he has been at his best in the postseason. That’s why it should come as no surprise that he had a solid season in 2019 despite being a fly-ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium dealing with allegedly juiced baseballs. Tanaka finished 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA but his ERA was inflated by two dreadful starts. Tanaka doesn’t throw very hard, rarely surpassing 90 miles per hour on the radar gun, but he does the little things well and doesn’t beat himself. He rarely allows walks, is an excellent fielder, and has a very good pickoff move. He has also been elite in the postseason. He is 5-3 with a 1.76 ERA and a 0.783 WHIP. I expect a slightly above average regular season from Tanaka but I think he will once again excel in big starts and the postseason.
J.A. Happ: The veteran lefty had developed into a very good starter but was burned by the long ball last season. He finished 12-8 with a 4.91 ERA and allowed 34 homers in 161.1 innings. He is now 37-years-old and it may be too late for him to figure out how to keep the ball on the ground after he has spent so many years as a fly-ball pitcher. My expectations for Happ aren’t very high but the Yankees high-powered offense could get him some wins if he can keep them in the game. If he can keep the ball in the park, Happ can have success this season, but that’s easier said than done. I’m expecting a similar season to 2019 for Happ. If he struggles, he could be moved to the bullpen in favor of a younger pitcher. The Yankees could also try to use Chad Green for the first couple of innings and use the bullpen for the rest of the game.
Jordan Montgomery: There will likely be a competition for the fifth and final spot in the rotation and I think Montgomery will earn it. He is still just 27-years-old and pitched very well for the Yankees before missing nearly the entire 2019 season following Tommy John surgery. He is 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 186.2 innings in his career. Montgomery tends to give up a lot of baserunners but bares down when he has to and has proven he can get out of jams. He has similar traits to Andy Pettitte, with the most important one being he finds ways to win games. It will be interesting to see if he can follow in Pettitte’s footsteps and have success in the postseason. Montgomery doesn’t throw hard but is crafty and mixes up his pitches well. I think he will quietly become an important part of the rotation this season.
Overall: The Yankees should have one of the better starting rotations in the American League if they can stay healthy. Cole, Paxton and Tanaka seem like locks, while the rest of the rotation is still up for grabs. It won’t be easy pitching in the AL East, in a hitter-friendly ballpark but I think the rotation will do a nice job. If they can make the postseason, as they are expected to, they can go with a three-man rotation and rely on their bullpen. Everyone in the rotation has something to prove and it should be fun to watch this hungry group of starters on their “Chase for 28.”
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